NFC South Preview

NFC South 

The NFC South has always been an exciting division. In 2012 this division is up for grabs with the Saints bounty program and the emergence of now second-year quarterback, Cam Newtown. The Falcons will continue to be steady and will likely compete for the division crown, while the Buccaneers are hoping Josh Freeman will go back to playing the way he did in his rookie season. The division winner in the South may not be decided until the end of week seventeen.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Last Year (4-12)

                The 2011 Season is one that fans in Tampa Bay would like to forget. After beginning the year 4-2 they quickly fell off the face of the Earth. It looked like the team had quit on the season and their former head coach, Raheem Morris, as they lost their last ten games. But after firing Morris and acquiring Greg Schiano, the previous Rutgers Football head coach, this team looks to turn it around. GM Mark Dominik helped out the receiving core by grabbing Vincent Jackson, who served an impressive tenure in San Diego, to go alongside Mike Williams. Jackson was a threat in San Diego but he never caught more than 70 passes in a season. This season Jackson will prove if he was a product of Rivers and Brees, or if he really is a prolific receiver. Mike Williams was a disappointment to many in 2011 as he was out of shape throughout the year. Josh Freeman came to know the definition of a Sophomore Slump as his touchdown to interception ratio dropped from 25:6 his rookie season to 16:22 last year. But that’s not the only thing that went wrong with Tampa Bay. The Bucs were also owners of the third worst rushing attack in the league.  LaGarrette Blount was nothing Tampa hoped he would be after a solid rookie season in 2010. He only rushed for 781 yards in 14 games, while he rushed for 1007 yards in 13 contests a year prior. Freeman never looked comfortable in the pocket and Blount was not a big help, as he was incapable in protecting Freeman all year.  Blount was also never able to get big holes through the line, but that will change with the signing of Carl Nicks, one of the top guards in the league.  Unfortunately that will not make up for the Tampa’s defensive issues. Last season they had quite possibly the worst defense in the league. Tampa’s crew was worst against the rush, second to last against the pass, and only got to the quarterback a league-low 23 times. The latter has somewhat to do with DT Gerald McCoy going down to injury after only playing six games, but he’ll be back this year along with Adrian Clayborn who had a promising rookie season. Tampa also drafted three defensive players with three of their first four picks in the draft. Schiano may be able to spark some fire in this team like he did when he began at Rutgers and the offense will score points and get down the field, as long as players like Mike Williams stay in shape all season. However, defense is the problem for the Bucs and will keep this team from being close to the playoffs and still at the bottom of the South.

Prediction: (6-10)

Carolina Panthers – Last Year (6-10)

                Obviously the story of the 2011 season was the record-breaking play of rookie quarterback Cam Newton who was nothing short of spectacular. He threw for 4051 yards and 21 TDs, and ran for another 14 TDs on top of that. The passing yards and rushing TDs were NFL rookie quarterback records. I can promise that Newton’s number will not be as successful this year, as last year was post-lockout and defensive coordinators will likely come up with a solution to slow him down.  I am not expecting a Sophomore Slump like some are calling for, though. Living in South Carolina last fall I was able to watch every Panthers game and I have never seen a rookie quarterback pick apart defenses like Newton. Having an incredible receiver in Smith always helps and both just need to focus on staying healthy. DeAngello Williams and Jonathan Stewart will continue as a good one-two punch at running back and Mike Tolbert will be a new force at fullback and will provide as a safety blanket for Newton in the passing game. But like the Buccaneers, the Panthers had a very porous defense, which was much of the reason for their 6-10 record a season ago despite a great season from Newton and Co.  It was thought by many that the Panthers would try to upgrade at defensive line in the draft but instead they passed on Fletcher Cox and went with Luke Kuechly, the inside linebacker out of Boston College, with their ninth overall pick. The Panthers made no moves to bring in better defensive lineman, and really didn’t do much to improve a bad secondary. The only hope they have there is in fifth round draft pick Josh Norman has been reported looking like a “stud” and could possibly start at corner. If this team could improve their defense I can see them making a run at the division title, unfortunately, I do not see that happening. I wanted to make them a surprise pick and win the wide-open division but I just couldn’t bring myself to do it. The offense will continue to be effective and will be close to top in the league, but the defense is what will keep this team from making the playoffs this year.

Prediction: (8-8)

New Orleans Saints - Last Year (12-4)

                The last few months for the Saints organization have been completely up and down. Last December, Drew Brees broke Dan Marino's record of most passing yards in a single season. The Saints looked like a team capable of ending the season in Indianapolis, but a loss in a classic playoff game at Candlestick Park stopped that dream short. In the offseason New Orleans has had to deal with the bounty program which resulted in the one year departure of head coach, Sean Payton, eight game suspension to GM Mickey Loomis, six game suspension for assistant coach Joe Vitt, eight game suspension to MLB Jonathan Vilma, and four game suspension to DE Will Smith. The good news is that the Saints still have arguably the best quarterback in the league in Drew Brees, who will be leading the best offense from a year ago. The offense has remained intact, although Sean Payton was obvisouly a key part of the system. Their biggest loss was Robert Meachem, but the ability of Brees will make up for Meachem's absence at receiver. One thing the Saints will look for is the production of Mark Ingram, who was mediocre in 2011 considering the Saints traded a first and second round pick to get him in last year's draft. Luckily, Darren Sproles was able to pick up the slack at the RB position and provided a great saftey valve for Brees in the passing game a year ago. The offense will still be as good as ever in 2012. On defense, however, the Saints couldn't stop the pass, as they were accountable for the third-worst pass defense in the league. With the eight game suspension of defensive captain, Jonathan Vilma, and four game suspension of DT Will Smith, the Saints have more problems. New Orleans will need to get to the quarterback more this year since they lost safety, Tracy Porter, to the Broncos via free agency. Since this team is in such disarray from an incredibly rocky offseason I am predicting this team to struggle. They will serve six games under interim head coach Aaron Kromer, and then will have Joe Vitt become the real interim head coach six weeks later. They will still be dominant at home, but one or two games may slip away due to the result of poor coaching. Expect this team to struggle on the road this year, especially when the temperature begin to decline. This season will feature too much distraction because of different coaches and players jumping into the schedule half way through the year. Super Bowl 47 will occur in New Orleans but probably without the Saints.

 

Prediction: (9-7)

Atlanta Falcons - Last Year (10-6)

                 The biggest story facing the Atlanta Falcons this offseason is the failure of Matt Ryan in his first three post season games. The question is; Can he get his first career playoff win? With the Saints having a damaging offseason the top of the division is wide open. The Bucs and the Panthers are on the rise, but not for a couple years will they be at the same caliber as the Falcons. To take some pressure of Ryan, he has made the playoffs in three out of his first four seasons, which is an accomplishment for any young quarterback. Also, the three teams Ryan has lost to have made it through the NFC and to the Super Bowl. However, the people of Atlanta don’t want excuses, and Ryan will try to bring Atlanta their first post season win since Vick was at the helm. To help Ryan on offense, the Falcons have RB Michael Turner, and Roddy White and Julio Jones at WR. Everyone knows Jones and White will be superb alongside retirement candidate, Tony Gonzalez, but a lot of speculation has gone to Turner and the running game. Even though Turner has been successful the past few seasons, many are still predicting Turner’s run to eventually stop, no pun intended. Head coach Mike Smith has said that Turner will get less touches this season which will pass a slight portion to second year back Jacquizz Rodgers. Even if Turner’s numbers decrease, the talented Rodgers should be there to pick up the slack. On defense, the Falcons added two big names by acquiring LB Lofa Tatupu and CB Asante Samuel. Samuels will play beside William Moore which makes the Falcons pretty solid in the secondary, as long as Moore can stay healthy. Tatupu came in because of the loss of Curtis Lofton who lead the team in tackles in 2011. Tatupu will battle Akeem Dent for starter at linebacker to fill the void left by Lofton. The Falcons interior defense will remain solid as it was sixth against the rush last year. I expect the Falcons to win the division this year, due in part to what the Saints dealt with this offseason. However, if Atlanta can’t produce in the post season, many will be calling for Ryan’s head and maybe even Mike Smith’s job.

 

Prediction: (10-6)

 

-Alex Hayes NFL Insider