NFC North Preview

NFC North

                This division has the potential to be the toughest all around division in football. For the exception of the Vikings, the three top teams in the division are all NFC champion contenders. The Lions, Packers, and Bears will battle it out all year and may produce some more classic hard-nosed football games. The only problem with the North is injuries. If the top three teams can stay healthy then they have what it takes to make a far into the playoffs.

Minnesota Vikings – Last Year (3-13)

                Although the Vikings still have Adrian Peterson and Jared Allen, this team is basically in the middle of rebuilding. After the retirement of Brett Favre and the firing of head coach Brad Childress this franchise has been unsuccessful. The Vikings are currently trying to build and improve second year quarterback Christian Ponder. Ponder showed signs of good quarterback play a year ago, only to be plagued by a hip injury towards the end of the season. He also had no help around him. The defense couldn’t hold a second half lead and Adrian Peterson went down in late December due to injury and is still recovering from the surgery. If Peterson is unable to return for the start of 2012 then the torch will be passed to Toby Gerhart. The Vikings have a franchise player in Peterson and a solid backup in Gerhart, so they shouldn't be rushing Peterson back from a serious ACL/MCL injury.They will be able to run the ball effectively with Gerhart so the concern for the offense is their pass blocking. They addressed that issue in the off-season, drafting Matt Kalil fourth overall out of USC. Kalil has Pro-Bowl potential, and will be a key contributor to protecting Ponder’s blind side. The Vikings also made a slight upgrade at wide receiver, signing play maker Jerome Simpson, and drafting Jarius Wright from Arkansas. Percy Harvin will continue to be the biggest threat on the Vikings’ receiving corps, who finished the year with 87 receptions and 1312 yards from scrimmage. On defense the Vikings have an abundance of young talent. They could be starting two rookie safeties and a third year cornerback while also having an inexperienced linebacker unit, for the exception of Chad Greenway. The defense is centered on Jared Allen, who came incredibly close to breaking Michael Strahan’s single season sack record last season. As I said before, the Vikings are still rebuilding, and are very young across the depth chart, so I don’t see this team going far any time soon. Any chance that they have this year is on Adrian Peterson, who will either rush back to the field too soon, or sit out a couple games to begin the season. Either way, this team will have growing pains throughout the year, and will be a surprise team in the NFL if they have anywhere near 7 wins.

Prediction: (4-12)

 

Detroit Lions – Last Year (10-6)

                The Detroit Lions finally ended the league’s longest playoff drought by reaching the post season with an exciting 10-6 record in 2011. Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson were by far the most explosive tandem in the NFL, both breaking career records in passing/receiving yards and touchdowns. Everyone is expecting another electrifying season from the Lions; however, many seem to forget about the lackluster running attack and defensive presence that kept them from making a deeper playoff run last year. We all know that the Lions will be able to throw the ball if Stafford and Johnson remain healthy, but the problems on offense begin with rushing the football. The Lions were 29^th in the NFL last season in rush yards per game and their leading rusher, Jahvid Best, only ran for 390 yards all year. Best is struggling with numerous concussions and is likely to begin the season on the PUP (Physically Unable to Perform), which would sideline him for at least the first six regular season games.  Jahvid Best is a talented running back but has not been able to stay on the field dating back to his days at Cal. The workload will likely be handed to Kevin Smith who looked solid last season only to be doomed by injury as well. Defense is another issue for the Lions. Detroit has a deep and potent defensive line (beginning with Ndamukong Suh, Cliff Avril, and Nick Fairley) but the secondary is a topic for concern. Their cornerbacks and safeties got torched last year, especially in the playoff game verse the Saints in which Drew Brees threw for 466 yards. The Lions will not be able to survive without a pass and run defense. They were also one of the most flagged units in football a year ago. Even though they finally look healthy, they still did not make a lot of defensive moves in the off-season.  I see the Lions dropping a game from what they achieved in 2011 if the defense and running game do not improve. Stafford and Johnson’s numbers will go down as they were a reflection of the porous post-lockout defenses. If the defense and running game improve, players stay healthy, and the team can become disciplined then the Lions are a perennial powerhouse in the NFC. The problem is that’s a lot to turn around in just one year. Oh yeah, they also have to play the Packers and Bears twice.

Prediction: (9-7)
 

Green Bay Packers – Last Year (15-1)

                My prediction will probably come to the surprise of many. Let me explain my reasoning. I’m obviously not picking the Packers to do poorly in 2012; I just believe the Packers are a more flawed team than a lot of people think they are. Last year they were obviously the best team throughout the regular season going 15-1. Aaron Rodgers’ MVP year erased the immense problems that the Packers had on the opposite side of the ball. Their defense was the all-time worse pass defense in NFL history. Yes, a lot of that had to do with the Packers leading almost every single game by double digits, making the opposing offenses pass the ball to have any chance of winning. But there are still no excuses. When a team has the worst passing defense ever they shouldn’t expect to go very far in the playoffs where the name of the game is run and defend. I’m surprised so many people were shocked by the loss they endured to the Giants last January. The Giants exploited pretty much every single problem the Packers had. The blame for that loss should go to the defense, not the offense’s inability to hold onto the football. The only thing wrong with the high-flying offense was the running game, which was only 27^th in the NFL. Green Bay recently picked up free agent RB Cedric Benson who is an immediate upgrade from James Starks and Ryan Grant. But the road back to the Super Bowl begins with Dam Capers' unit. Overall defenses will be better in 2012, which will prohibit the Packers from running away with games as easily and having to win them by running out the clock and making defensive stops. The Packers turned to the draft to address some of the defensive problems, selecting Nick Perry, Jerel Worthy, and Casey Hayward in the first two rounds. They still possess big names like Charles Woodson, Clay Matthews, and B.J. Raji, but if they want to make another title run like 2010 then they must stop the ball. Do not expect the Packers to walk through the North this year. Their archrival Chicago Bears have also progressed, posing a bigger threat in the division. Expect the Packers to make it back to the post-season, however, if the defense doesn’t recover then the Cheeseheads shouldn’t be shocked by another round one exit.

Prediction: (11-5)
 

Chicago Bears – Last Year (8-8)

                The Chicago Bears 2011 expedition was halted because of injuries to their two biggest offensive weapons, Jay Cutler and Matt Forte. The Bears were surviving without Forte, but once Cutler went down to a thumb injury in week twelve the Bears had no shot, losing five out of their last six games with backup quarterback Caleb Hanie struggling at the helm. But 2012 is a new start for the Bears and Chicago fans should be excited for what this season has to offer. The Bears made two big acquisitions in the offseason by bringing in backup RB Michael Bush, who was quite successful behind Darren McFadden in Oakland, and big play WR Brandon Marshall, reuniting him with Jay Cutler. Cutler was beginning to look comfortable in Chicago's offense until the thumb injury, and that was without a receiving core. Now, with Brandon Marshall on the wing, Cutler’s stats are only going to improve, and so will the Bears' winning percentage. The front office finally paid Matt Forte what he deserved, a juicy four-year $32 million contract, and got Cutler help that he was desperate for. So as far as the offense goes, it’s time to roll. The defense is another story, and as always, rides on the shoulders of future Hall-of-Famer Brian Urlacher. It’s been reported that Urlacher has had to deal with multiple knee surgeries since January but he insists that he’ll be ready to go for week one in Indy. If Urlacher comes back on time and remains healthy throughout the regular season there’s no doubt the defense will be as strong as always. Same goes for the offense, if Jay Cutler and Matt Forte stay on the field, and the tandem of Marshall and Cutler is as dangerous as it was in Denver, then Chicago can definitely make a run towards another Lombardi Trophy. 

Prediction: (11-5)


-Alex Hayes NFL Insider